Mortgage Rates Today, Thursday, October 16: A Noticeable Jump

If you’re here looking for lower mortgage interest rates than yesterday, today is not your day. However, let’s put that in context: even though today’s rates show a jump, this is the third week in a row that rates have fallen on average.

The average interest rate on a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage jumped to 6.13% APR, according to rates provided to NerdWallet by Zillow. This is 11 basis points higher than yesterday, but 13 basis points lower than a week ago. (See our chart below for more specifics.) A basis point is one one-hundredth of a percentage point.

Keep in mind that mortgage rates are always on the move, and that if you’re tracking rates day-to-day, you’re going to see a lot of volatility. Zooming out and looking at the bigger picture — like a graph showing at least a month’s worth of rate data — can help you see the overall trend.

Just three weeks ago, the average rate was almost a quarter of a percentage point higher, at 6.35%.

Mortgage rates are constantly changing, since a major part of how rates are set depends on reactions to new inflation reports, job numbers, Fed meetings, global news… you name it. For example, even tiny changes in the bond market can shift mortgage pricing.

Usually, the Nerds are looking ahead to a big data drop. But because of the government shutdown, info we’d expect to arrive shortly — like the CPI report originally scheduled for earlier this week — is in limbo. Reportedly, the CPI will be delivered late, on Oct. 24, as furloughed employees are recalled to prepare the report. We’ve already missed the jobs report that was slated for Oct. 3. Those official numbers are helpful for future projections, since they can provide clues to the Federal Reserve’s likely moves; after all, data is vital to the Fed’s decision making.

In case that’s not enough pressure, the Federal Reserve’s next meeting is at the end of this month and the central bankers are at a pivotal moment, having just cut rates in September. For now, we’ll be keeping a close eye on the markets — as will the Fed.

There is no universal “right” time to start shopping — what matters is whether you can comfortably afford a mortgage now at today’s rates.

If the answer is yes, don’t get too hung up on whether you could be missing out on lower rates later; you can refinance down the road. Focus on getting preapproved, comparing lender offers, and understanding what monthly payment works for your budget.

NerdWallet’s affordability calculator can help you estimate your potential monthly payment. If a new home isn’t in the cards right now, there are still things you can do to strengthen your buyer profile. Take this time to pay down existing debts and build your down payment savings. Not only will this free up more cash flow for a future mortgage payment, it can also get you a better interest rate when you’re ready to buy.

If you already have a quote you’re happy with, you should consider locking your mortgage rate, especially if your lender offers a float-down option. A float-down lets you take advantage of a better rate if the market drops during your lock period.

Rate locks protect you from increases while your loan is processed, and with the market forever bouncing around, that peace of mind can be worth it.

Refinancing might make sense if today’s rates are at least 0.5 to 0.75 of a percentage point lower than your current rate (and if you plan to stay in your home long enough to break even on closing costs).

With rates where they are right now, you may want to start considering a refi if your current rate is around 6.63% or higher.

Also consider your goals: Are you trying to lower your monthly payment, shorten your loan term or turn home equity into cash? For example, you might be more comfortable with paying a higher rate for a cash-out refinance than you would for a rate-and-term refinance, so long as the overall costs are lower than if you kept your original mortgage and added a HELOC or home equity loan.

If you’re looking for a lower rate, use NerdWallet’s refinance calculator to estimate savings and understand how long it would take to break even on the costs of refinancing.

The rate you see advertised is a sample rate — usually for a borrower with perfect credit, making a big down payment, and paying for mortgage points. That won’t match every buyer’s circumstances.

In addition to market factors outside of your control, your customized quote depends on your:

Even two people with similar credit scores might get different rates, depending on their overall financial profiles.

Maybe — but even personalized rate quotes can change until you lock. That’s because lenders adjust pricing multiple times a day in response to market changes.