Mortgage Rates Today, Thursday, February 19: Somehow Even Lower

Mortgage rates are somehow even lower today. If we look at Freddie Mac’s weekly mortgage rate survey, the last time we saw APRs this low was in September 2022.

The average interest rate on a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage dropped to 5.77% APR, according to rates provided to NerdWallet by Zillow. This is 12 basis points lower than yesterday and 36 basis points lower than a week ago. (See our chart below for more specifics.) A basis point is one one-hundredth of a percentage point.

Bear in mind, that’s a national average — the rate you’ll be quoted by a lender will vary, and it could vary quite a bit, even if you’re providing each one with the exact same financials. I took a quick glance around the web this morning and checked sample offers from five different mortgage lenders. The range between the lowest and highest offers I saw was 58 basis points.

If that doesn’t convince you to shop around, maybe this will: According to research from Freddie Mac, borrowers who get quotes from four or more mortgage lenders could save more than $1,200 a year. That’s a good chunk of change to not spend on mortgage interest.

Mortgage rates are constantly changing, since a major part of how rates are set depends on reactions to new inflation reports, job numbers, Fed meetings, global news … you name it. For example, even tiny changes in the bond market can shift mortgage pricing.

Right now, the answer to “when will mortgage rates drop” is “they just did.” Last week’s better-than-expected Consumer Price Index showed overall inflation easing to 2.4%. Markets instantly interpreted that news as signaling the possibility of a spring rate cut from the Federal Reserve, and mortgage rates promptly fell based on that idea, too.

Here’s the thing, though: Markets react like my dog. The Fed reacts like a person. When my dog sees a truck pull to the curb on our street, he’s barking like mad before the ignition’s even turned off. For him, a truck means someone is about to come to our door, and he feels really strongly about stranger danger. For me, a person, my reaction is more, “Oh. A truck. Please stop barking.”

The latter is pretty much how the Fed reacts — to really belabor my example, they’ll wait for more evidence that someone is actually coming to the door. “From a macroeconomic perspective, these inflation figures appear promising,” says Elizabeth Renter, NerdWallet Senior Economist. But, she cautions, “these figures don’t necessarily indicate all is well, at least not yet. If you put on your Fed hat, you know we need more data to know for certain if inflation will continue in the right direction, with no concurrent harm to the labor market.”

We’re going to get additional info quite soon, since a new Personal Consumption Expenditures report comes out Friday. The PCE is the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation. If PCE also shows inflation easing, then the odds of a spring rate cut will go up. Inflation has been over the central bankers’ goal of 2% for nearly five years, but if it appears to be slowing, there’s less of a case for maintaining higher rates.

For now, most forecasters still expect the Fed to keep the federal funds rate steady at its March 17-18 meeting. But we’ll be watching closely, even if we aren’t barking about everything.

Refinancing might make sense if today’s rates are at least 0.5 to 0.75 of a percentage point lower than your current rate (and if you plan to stay in your home long enough to break even on closing costs).

With rates where they are right now, you could start considering a refi if your current rate is around 6.27% or higher.

Also consider your goals: Are you trying to lower your monthly payment, shorten your loan term or turn home equity into cash? For example, you might be more comfortable with paying a higher rate for a cash-out refinance than you would for a rate-and-term refinance, so long as the overall costs are lower than if you kept your original mortgage and added a HELOC or home equity loan.

If you’re looking for a lower rate, use NerdWallet’s refinance calculator to estimate savings and understand how long it would take to break even on the costs of refinancing.

There is no universal “right” time to start shopping — what matters is whether you can comfortably afford a mortgage now at today’s rates.

If the answer is yes, don’t get too hung up on whether you could be missing out on lower rates later; you can refinance down the road. Focus on getting preapproved, comparing lender offers, and understanding what monthly payment works for your budget.

NerdWallet’s affordability calculator can help you estimate your potential monthly payment. If a new home isn’t in the cards right now, there are still things you can do to strengthen your buyer profile. Take this time to pay down existing debts and build your down payment savings. Not only will this free up more cash flow for a future mortgage payment, it can also get you a better interest rate when you’re ready to buy.

If you already have a quote you’re happy with, you should consider locking your mortgage rate, especially if your lender offers a float-down option. A float-down lets you take advantage of a better rate if the market drops during your lock period.

Rate locks protect you from increases while your loan is processed, and with the market forever bouncing around, that peace of mind can be worth it.

The rate you see advertised is a sample rate — usually for a borrower with perfect credit, making a big down payment, and paying for mortgage points. That won’t match every buyer’s circumstances.

In addition to market factors outside of your control, your customized quote depends on your:

Even two people with similar credit scores might get different rates, depending on their overall financial profiles.

Maybe — but even personalized rate quotes can change until you lock. That’s because lenders adjust pricing multiple times a day in response to market changes.