Mortgage Rates Today, Thursday, February 12: Kind of a Big Jump

If you can afford a mortgage rate around 6%, this winter has been a great time to shop for a home loan. But if you’re here hoping for even lower mortgage interest rates, today is not your day.

The average interest rate on a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage jumped to 6.13% APR, according to rates provided to NerdWallet by Zillow. This is 19 basis points higher than yesterday and 14 basis points higher than a week ago. (See our chart below for more specifics.) A basis point is one one-hundredth of a percentage point.

Why the jump? Yesterday’s better-than-expected jobs report caused a bit of a shakeup in the bond market, so rates may be correcting to accommodate the new data.

Keep in mind that mortgage rates are always on the move, and that if you’re tracking rates day-to-day, you’re going to see a lot of volatility. Zooming out and looking at the bigger picture — like a graph showing at least a month’s worth of rate data — can help you see the overall trend. Mortgage rates have been pretty darn stable since the start of the new year, so don’t sweat today’s spike too much.

Mortgage rates are constantly changing, since a major part of how rates are set depends on reactions to new inflation reports, job numbers, Fed meetings, global news … you name it. For example, even tiny changes in the bond market can shift mortgage pricing.

It’s a big week for the Nerds, with multiple reports dropping that will give a pulse check on inflation, employment and home sales.

First up was the jobs report, released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) yesterday. It was supposed to come out last week, but was delayed due to the partial government shutdown. The data show a stronger-than-expected labor market, with employers adding 130,000 jobs in January and the unemployment rate improving slightly to 4.3%. When unemployment improves, the Fed is less likely to cut interest rates to encourage hiring.

Today, the National Association of Realtors will release its existing home sales report for January. This will give us a window into sales volume, pricing and inventory — all things that affect buyers’ ability to get a home.

Finally, tomorrow, BLS will put out the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures inflation across goods and services. When inflation trends above the Fed’s target rate of 2%, central bankers are less likely to cut interest rates. However, while CPI data is important for the markets, it’s not the Fed’s preferred inflation measure. That would be the Personal Consumption Expenditures Report (PCE), which isn’t scheduled to come out until next Friday, Feb. 20.

Refinancing might make sense if today’s rates are at least 0.5 to 0.75 of a percentage point lower than your current rate (and if you plan to stay in your home long enough to break even on closing costs).

With rates where they are right now, you may want to start considering a refi if your current rate is around 6.63% or higher.

Also consider your goals: Are you trying to lower your monthly payment, shorten your loan term or turn home equity into cash? For example, you might be more comfortable with paying a higher rate for a cash-out refinance than you would for a rate-and-term refinance, so long as the overall costs are lower than if you kept your original mortgage and added a HELOC or home equity loan.

If you’re looking for a lower rate, use NerdWallet’s refinance calculator to estimate savings and understand how long it would take to break even on the costs of refinancing.

There is no universal “right” time to start shopping — what matters is whether you can comfortably afford a mortgage now at today’s rates.

If the answer is yes, don’t get too hung up on whether you could be missing out on lower rates later; you can refinance down the road. Focus on getting preapproved, comparing lender offers, and understanding what monthly payment works for your budget.

NerdWallet’s affordability calculator can help you estimate your potential monthly payment. If a new home isn’t in the cards right now, there are still things you can do to strengthen your buyer profile. Take this time to pay down existing debts and build your down payment savings. Not only will this free up more cash flow for a future mortgage payment, it can also get you a better interest rate when you’re ready to buy.

If you already have a quote you’re happy with, you should consider locking your mortgage rate, especially if your lender offers a float-down option. A float-down lets you take advantage of a better rate if the market drops during your lock period.

Rate locks protect you from increases while your loan is processed, and with the market forever bouncing around, that peace of mind can be worth it.

The rate you see advertised is a sample rate — usually for a borrower with perfect credit, making a big down payment, and paying for mortgage points. That won’t match every buyer’s circumstances.

In addition to market factors outside of your control, your customized quote depends on your:

Even two people with similar credit scores might get different rates, depending on their overall financial profiles.

Maybe — but even personalized rate quotes can change until you lock. That’s because lenders adjust pricing multiple times a day in response to market changes.