US market share is shrinking, but the pie continues to grow
The total number of internationally mobile students reached 7.3 million in 2025, according to UNESCO, a number only set to grow in the coming years.
But traditional student flows are changing. While the US held 28% of the international student market share in 2001, last year that proportion had fallen to 16%, with further declines expected across the ‘big four’ study destinations.
As the US continues to weather a period of unprecedented policy changes and visa restrictions, AIEA delegates were reminded of the enduring prestige of US academia and research and were urged to make the most of existing markets.
“We can’t control immigration policy or broader political rhetoric, but we can control how we show up for prospective students,” said Megan Prettyman, VP partner success at UniQuest.
“Compared to competitor markets, North American institutions often lag in inquiry management. This problem isn’t driven by market conditions – it’s purely execution,” she said.
Prettyman highlighted comparative data showing US institutions trailing behind counterparts in Australia, New Zealand and the UK in inquiry responses and follow-ups, emphasising the impact of the inquiry experience on conversion rates.
“If the funnel narrows naturally, conversion efficiency becomes the biggest growth lever,” attendees heard.
Meanwhile, despite acute challenges, speakers said America’s capacity to host international students was “unmatched” by competitor destinations, with international students currently comprising 6% of the total student body, compared to 25% and higher across the other ‘big four’ destinations.
TNE is not just a way to “ride out the storm”
As visa restrictions, policy uncertainty and affordability constraints continue to dampen the appeal of the ‘big four’ study destinations, transnational education (TNE) was on everyone’s lips as US institutions explore ways to remain globally competitive.
“There are a lot of conversations on international branch campuses and access difficulties in getting here to the US,” QS executive director of the Americas Ben Webb told the closing plenary, hailing “the great pivot” towards TNE and the promise of “education without passports”.
But leaders warned delegates not to view TNE as a short-term policy solution: “You’ve got to think of it as a 20-year investment in a market rather than just going there to ride out the storm,” said Kirsten Fedderson, IDP vice president of partnerships.
Meanwhile, Acumen’s Noth America president Roger Brindley emphasised the “many variations on the TNE continuum”, encouraging university leaders to look beyond in-country branch campuses and explore the possibility of more flexible and affordable options.
He highlighted the success of UK universities’ TNE strategies, where the number of students on TNE programs has surpassed 650,000 and almost matched the number of international students studying in the UK.
“It’s entirely probable there will be more students gaining an Australian degree overseas than ever travel to Australia. And the question is for us and Canada… do we want to be part of that conversation?” Brindley asked.
You’ve got to think of TNE as a 20-year investment in a market rather than just going there to ride out the storm
Kirsten Fedderson, IDP
Graduate enrolments face unique challenges, and opportunities
With IIE’s Fall Snapshot revealing a 12% decline in international graduate enrolments this year – as undergraduate levels grew by 2% – delegates convened to discuss the unique challenges facing PhD and master’s recruitment, and how institutions can strengthen this talent pipeline.
“Graduate enrolment is distinctly vulnerable in several areas,” said Jessica Sandberg, IDP’s VP for external affairs USA, noting that recruitment was typically decentralised across campus, making strategies less adaptable to fast-paced policy changes.
What’s more, “graduate students have a shorter timeline, making them particularly sensistive to political and economic circumstances as they can’t afford to wait and see if the situation improves”, Sandberg explained.
While large variations exist across universities, almost every delegate in the room said their institution had seen a dip in graduate enrolments this year, with many raising concerns about applicants from Nigeria and Iran – destinations that have long sent high levels of PhD students to the US, who are now blocked by Trump’s travel ban.
Attendees’ experiences rang true with IDP’s fall 2025 student survey, in which 40% of graduate students indicated their perception of the US had worsened since the previous year, and 82% said they now considered multiple study destinations.
Notably, the survey found 66% of graduate students would “definitely change” or “reconsider” their study destination if post-study work opportunities were eliminated – as threats to restrict or abolish OPT continue to loom large over the US sector.
Amid the challenges, speakers said timely decision making was even more “crucial” to conversion at the graduate level and shared opportunities to foster international partnerships around specific programs, including possible 1+1 and hybrid options.
“We used to recruit for graduate and then we didn’t… and I think it will come full circle,” said Kiki Caruson, vice president of USF World at the University of South Florida.
Caruson outlined the specific challenges facing Florida institutions, as the state legislature considers imposing a 5% cap on out-of-state enrolments at public universities – covering both international students and domestic students from outside Florida.
“I hope it won’t happen, but we’re trying to be agile in future proofing, so if we need to pull back on undergraduate, our in-country representatives will flip to graduate… and they can recruit for graduate just as effectively as they can recruit for undergraduate,” she said.
Insitutions are building resilience through partnership networks
Elsewhere in the conference, IIE presented fresh data from the first iteration of its global partnerships survey, revealing steady growth not only in the importance of such links, but the scrutiny they are being subjected to in higher education and beyond.
With the first phase of the survey taking place across the US, UK and Europe, 84% of respondents said the international partnership landscape had changed and over half reported having more than 100 international partnerships.
“Changing geopolitical relationships have dramatically affected international partnership strategies,” said IIE research associate Susan Buck Sutton.
“There are more partnerships, they’re stronger than ever, they’re doing more things and they are spread more broadly… If there’s a sermon to this – and there is – it’s that the network is primed for the challenges of the present that we’re all feeling,” she added.
The survey found international partnerships were becoming more strategic, multi-functional, and carefully planned, with institutions broadening geopolitical portfolios and enhancing relationships with the global south.
“The idea of signing MOUs for the sake of signing MOUs has changed over the last decade,” said Sylvia Jons, director of IIE’s Centre for International Partnerships, highlighting a reduction in ceremonial agreements without activity and rising accountability for the outcomes of such initiatives.
Drawing on themes of data and storytelling that emerged throughout the conference, speakers emphasised the importance of using the findings to “explain these partnerships beyond ourselves” – not only their economic impact but the values that can be translated for employers and governmental agencies, said Buck Sutton.
