by Michael
We have heard a lot of really crazy stuff from the mainstream media about the crisis in the Middle East in recent days. We have been repeatedly told that a peace deal with Iran is “imminent”, we have been repeatedly told that fighting in the Middle East will end, and we have been repeatedly told that the Strait of Hormuz will be opened. None of those things are true. If you doubt this, just consider the facts that I have laid out in this article. Instead of winding down, it appears that the Great Middle East War is about to go to an entirely new level.
In the past 72 hours, at least 3 commercial vessels have been attacked in the vicinity of the Strait of Hormuz.
If the Iranians really wanted peace, why would they be doing that?
Meanwhile, the Houthis have been attacking commercial vessels in the Red Sea.
On Tuesday, a Houthi drone actually sunk one of those commercial vessels…
The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) organization reported that a vessel in the Bab al-Mandab Strait was sunk on Tuesday during a drone attack.
“The vessel was attacked by an Uncrewed Surface Vessel which caused a fire onboard. The crew have been rescued by local authorities and are safe and well,” UKMTO said on Wednesday.
The ship sank off the coast of Al Mukha, Yemen. The UKMTO did not identify who carried out the attack or disclose the sunken vessel’s origin.
The Houthis, the Iran-backed terrorist group in Yemen, have been striking Saudi oil tankers up and down the Red Sea for the past two weeks.
Also on Tuesday, the Houthis announced that they had successfully struck a Saudi oil tanker using ballistic missiles…
The Saudis have been diverting most of their oil through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait while the Strait of Hormuz has been closed, but now they aren’t going to be able to do that.
And each time a Saudi tanker gets put out of commission, the Saudis are going to become even more frustrated.
On Wednesday, the Houthis hit another Saudi oil tanker named “Daisy” with a ballistic missile…
Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis said Wednesday they had attacked another Saudi oil tanker, the second in a day as the rebels pressed on with their declared maritime blockade of the kingdom.
Houthi military spokesman Yahya Saree said in a statement the rebels targeted the Saudi oil tanker Daisy in the Gulf of Aden, south of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, with a ballistic missile.
The attack appears to coincide with a tanker that reported hearing a “loud explosion in proximity to the vessel” to the U.K. Maritime Operations Centre. The UKMTO, a U.K. navy maritime security organization, fields reports of incidents from commercial vessels.
What a nightmare this is for the Saudis, and it isn’t going to end any time soon.
At this point, the Houthis are determined to keep any Saudi tankers from entering or leaving the Red Sea…
Iran continues to strike commercial vessels as well, but we aren’t hearing a lot about that.
Instead, all of the headlines are about the “imminent deal” that will supposedly open the Strait of Hormuz.
Yes, there is a “deal”, but it isn’t between the United States and Iran.
The deal that has been negotiated is between Oman and Iran, and according to the Wall Street Journal the Iranians have made it clear that the Strait of Hormuz will only be opened if the United States meets certain conditions…
The parties have agreed on the main points of the draft—which would set up an inbound lane near Iran and an outbound lane near Oman—and have shared it with the U.S., countries in the region and Iran’s top leaders, who still needed to sign off, they said.
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei told reporters Iran had reached an agreement with Oman to create a safe route through the Strait of Hormuz and that an outline of the main points was being completed.
A deal could still fall apart or fail to open the strait. Kazem Gharibabadi, deputy Iranian foreign minister, said the agreement with Oman wouldn’t necessarily open the waterway unless the U.S. met unspecified conditions, state media reported.
Iran International has issued a similar report.
According to their report, the opening of the Strait of Hormuz is contingent upon “the United States taking concrete steps to fulfill its commitments”…
Reopening the Strait of Hormuz depends on the United States taking concrete steps to fulfill its commitments, the IRGC-affiliated Fars News reported, citing a source close to Iran’s negotiating team.
The source said Washington disrupted the normalization of shipping by violating the Islamabad memorandum, carrying out military attacks, imposing a naval blockade and revoking waivers for Iranian oil and petrochemical exports.
The source added that even if an Iran-Oman understanding is finalized, reopening the strait would require separate arrangements that include implementation of US commitments.
Okay, so what is the problem?
The problem is that the Trump administration will never agree to all of the demands that Iran is making…
The Trump administration won’t agree to permanently lift all sanctions and release all of Iran’s frozen funds until the nuclear issue is resolved.
And the nuclear issue is never going to be resolved.
But the biggest sticking point is probably the fact that Iran is insisting on being allowed to impose a very large fee on every commercial vessel that travels through the Strait of Hormuz…
This is not a negotiation.
This is what the Iranians are demanding, and they expect President Trump to give in.
Of course even if Trump wanted to throw up the white flag and give the Iranians everything that they are asking for, he still couldn’t guarantee that the war in Lebanon will end.
The Israeli government is going to do what it feels is right for Israel, and today there was fresh fighting in southern Lebanon after Hezbollah committed a blatant ceasefire violation…
Israel’s military resumed strikes in southern Lebanon on Wednesday despite ongoing talks, blaming a ceasefire violation by militant group Hezbollah.
The fresh strikes, accompanied by the first evacuation warning in weeks, came as the United States led diplomacy between Israel and Lebanon in Rome aimed at putting an end to hostilities, with Beirut seeking Israel’s phased withdrawal from the south.
“In response to a blatant violation of the ceasefire by the Hezbollah terrorist organisation, the IDF has begun conducting precise strikes in southern Lebanon,” the military said in a statement, shortly after telling residents to evacuate the town of Mansouri in the south.
President Trump does not have control over the fighting between Israel and Hezbollah.
This is a war that nobody has been able to stop.
Since ending the war in Lebanon is one of the conditions that Iran has set for opening the Strait of Hormuz, the Strait of Hormuz will not be opened any time soon.
I have no problem with the mainstream media publishing hopeful headlines about the crisis in the Middle East, but what I have been seeing lately borders on the delusional.
There is no deal to open the Strait of Hormuz.
It is not going to be opened this week, and it is not going to be opened next week.
That is going to frustrate Trump, and it is likely that it won’t be too long before he loses patience with Iran.
Meanwhile, if Hezbollah doesn’t settle down the Israelis will likely start bombing southern Beirut again.
If that actually happens, the Iranians have already warned that they will launch ballistic missiles at Tel Aviv.
The Great Middle East War has been raging for years, and now it is building up to a grand crescendo.
But for the moment, the mainstream media continues to boldly proclaim that some sort of a “deal” is going to magically open the Strait of Hormuz and that there is going to be peace in the Middle East.
Good luck with all that.
Those that have been expecting an easy way out of this crisis are going to be deeply disappointed, and much more fighting is ahead.
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