Mortgage Rates Today, Monday, July 6: Slightly Lower

Mortgage rates are starting the week a little lower as markets continue to digest the less-than-stellar June jobs report.

The average interest rate on a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage ticked down to 6.38% APR, according to rates provided to NerdWallet by Zillow. This is two basis points lower than Friday but 10 basis points higher than a week ago. (See our chart below for more specifics.) A basis point is one one-hundredth of a percentage point.

A weaker-than-we-thought labor market should make the Federal Reserve less likely to raise the federal funds rate when it meets at the end of this month, but markets are still placing the odds of a 25-basis-point rate hike at roughly one in four, according to CME FedWatch. Fed chair Kevin Warsh’s remarks last week that “if there were people in households or the business sector in the financial markets who thought that this central bank was going to be comfortable with an inflation objective above 2%, well, I guess they’d be disappointed” may be boosting those odds.

For more about what that means, keep reading below the chart.

Average mortgage rates, last 30 days

📈 What influences mortgage rates?

Mortgage rates are constantly changing, since a major part of how rates are set depends on reactions to new inflation reports, job numbers, Fed meetings, global news … you name it. For example, even tiny changes in the bond market can shift mortgage pricing.

We say it a lot: The Fed doesn’t set mortgage rates. But its policy decisions influence borrowing costs throughout the economy, and that certainly extends to mortgage rates. Markets like to know where the Federal Reserve is headed, whether that’s toward rate cuts, hikes or staying the course. An anticipated rate increase from the Fed is generally more than enough to put upward pressure on mortgage rates.

The Fed’s goal is a healthy economy, which it achieves by focusing on two main goals. In no particular order, they’re price stability (is inflation manageable?) and maximum employment (if you want a job, can you find a job?).

As anyone who’s filled up a vehicle in the last few months can attest, price stability has not been great. Even before the Iran war stoked inflation, it had been above the central bankers’ preferred 2% level for years. The Fed generally raises the federal funds rate (that’s the short-term borrowing rate it actually sets) in order to slow inflation.

But for the Federal Reserve to feel confident about making that move, the central bankers also need to feel assured that the labor market is healthy. Higher interest rates slow inflation by discouraging business borrowing and expansion, which can also slow hiring.

Lately it had seemed like this wouldn’t be a problem since the labor market was doing surprisingly well. But those expecting fireworks from last week’s Employment Situation Summary from the Bureau of Labor Statistics got more fizzle than spark. June job gains came in well below projections, at 57,000 compared to an anticipated 100,000 or more.

Though June was the fourth consecutive month of job gains, it wasn’t much — and April and May got revised downward. While unemployment was slightly down, that wasn’t really a win either. The unemployment rate dropped because fewer Americans were looking for work.

“The labor force is aging and immigration policies have stymied a major source of continued labor force growth,” explains NerdWallet senior economist Elizabeth Renter. “Still, employers across industries have been adding jobs in 2026. There were 92,000 jobs added, on average, in each of the first six months of the year. There’s bound to be some fluctuations from month to month, so this past month’s slowing can be taken in stride until there is any additional evidence of trouble.”

Still, you wouldn’t be wrong to think this feels like enough to keep the Fed in wait-and-see mode. But it sure seems like at least some of the Federal Reserve bank presidents have been trying to set the stage for rate hikes, even if chair Warsh wants the central bank to say less. (Warsh reiterating the Fed’s commitment to 2% inflation doesn’t count, apparently.)

So where does all of this leave mortgage rates? Well, that weaker employment data has led mortgage interest rates to soften a little, but if the Fed keeps sending out rate hike vibes we are not likely to see mortgage rates fall far. Next week we’ll get June inflation data, which could continue to firm up the case for higher rates.

Refinancing might make sense if today’s rates are at least 0.5 to 0.75 of a percentage point lower than your current rate (and if you plan to stay in your home long enough to break even on closing costs).

With rates where they are right now, you may want to start considering a refi if your current rate is around 6.88% or higher.

Also consider your goals: Are you trying to lower your monthly payment, shorten your loan term or turn home equity into cash? For example, you might be more comfortable with paying a higher rate for a cash-out refinance than you would for a rate-and-term refinance, so long as the overall costs are lower than if you kept your original mortgage and added a HELOC or home equity loan.

If you’re looking for a lower rate, use NerdWallet’s refinance calculator to estimate savings and understand how long it would take to break even on the costs of refinancing.

🏡 Should I start shopping for a home?

There is no universal “right” time to start shopping — what matters is whether you can comfortably afford a mortgage now at today’s rates.

If the answer is yes, don’t get too hung up on whether you could be missing out on lower rates later; you can refinance down the road. Focus on getting preapproved, comparing lender offers, and understanding what monthly payment works for your budget.

NerdWallet’s affordability calculator can help you estimate your potential monthly payment. If a new home isn’t in the cards right now, there are still things you can do to strengthen your buyer profile. Take this time to pay down existing debts and build your down payment savings. Not only will this free up more cash flow for a future mortgage payment, it can also get you a better interest rate when you’re ready to buy.

🔒 Should I lock my rate?

If you already have a quote you’re happy with, you should consider locking your mortgage rate, especially if your lender offers a float-down option. A float-down lets you take advantage of a better rate if the market drops during your lock period.

Rate locks protect you from increases while your loan is processed, and with the market forever bouncing around, that peace of mind can be worth it.

🤓 Nerdy Reminder: Rates can change daily, and even hourly. If you’re happy with the deal you have, it’s okay to commit.

🧐 Why is the rate I saw online different from the quote I got?

The rate you see advertised is a sample rate — usually for a borrower with perfect credit, making a big down payment, and paying for mortgage points. That won’t match every buyer’s circumstances.

In addition to market factors outside of your control, your customized quote depends on your:

Even two people with similar credit scores might get different rates, depending on their overall financial profiles.

👀 If I apply now, can I get the rate I saw today?

Maybe — but even personalized rate quotes can change until you lock. That’s because lenders adjust pricing multiple times a day in response to market changes.

About the author

Kate Wood is a lending expert and certified financial health counselor (CHFC) who joined NerdWallet in 2019. With an educational background in sociology, Kate feels strongly about issues like inequality in homeownership and higher education, and relishes any opportunity to demystify government programs. Prior to NerdWallet, she wrote about home remodeling, decor and maintenance for This Old House.

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