Galaxy Digital has lowered its expectations for the CLARITY Act to pass in 2026. It pointed out that the crypto market structure bill is getting into a very tight Senate’s schedule. Moreover, it highlighted that there’s been no public progress on the bill ahead of the end of Congress’ August recess.
Galaxy Digital Slashes CLARITY Act Approval Odds
Galaxy Digital’s Head of Research Alex Thorn cut the odds to 50% in the latest research, bringing the figure down from 60% a few weeks ago.
“We are reducing our odds of CLARITY Act passage in 2026 to 50-50 as the Senate calendar tightens and a lack of progress in negotiations makes passage less likely than several weeks ago,” Thorn wrote. He added that “the absence of news is itself the news.”
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— Alex Thorn (@intangiblecoins) June 26, 2026
This bill has been referred to the Senate Banking Committee and has been pending on that committee since May, when the CLARITY Act was approved 15-9. The Banking and Agriculture Committee has started merging the text of the bill, but has not published the merged text or set a date for a floor debate.
Thorn noted “constructive staff-level work toward a combined text is what we would want to see at this stage.” However, stressed that “private meetings are not the same thing as a scheduled vote.”
There are also some policy issues that are not resolved. Ethics issues remain split among lawmakers, despite a conflict-of-interest amendment falling out of committee. Meanwhile, law enforcement groups are still seeking changes to developer protections included in the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act.
Senate’s Busy Schedule In Spotlight
The Senate is grappling with a tight schedule though, and Galaxy contended that that’s the greater hurdle. “Competition for floor time intensified this week” after President Donald Trump linked his approval of a bipartisan housing bill to passage of the SAVE Act, Thorn said.
Limited floor time is also competing for other unfinished business, such as FISA legislation and the annual National Defense Authorization Act. Now, with the Senate on an extended recess till July 13, the CLARITY Act faces a time crunch.
“The downgrade is primarily related to the calendar, not the substance of the bill,” Thorn wrote. He added that “the runway is quickly declining into just a matter of weeks.” The Galaxy exec warned that “floor time is the scarcest resource in the Senate right now, and crypto market structure is not first in line for it.”
According to Thorn, public consensus on a single bill text, a resolution of outstanding issues, and “above all, a floor commitment from leadership for July” would boost the bill’s chances. He added that a “scheduling announcement in the next two weeks would likely push us back toward 60% or higher.” On the contrary, he noted that “continued silence into mid-July would push us lower.”
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