Anthropic Pre-IPO Futures Crash After Coinbase Debut

Coinbase launched the ANTHROPIC/USDC pre-IPO perpetual futures contract on June 22, and it has since dropped by 7.2% from the opening price of $1,728.

The ANTHROPIC/USDT contract on Binance also recorded a 5% decline to $1,630 between June 22 and June 23.

This drop comes despite Anthropic partnering with $1.37 trillion Micron Technology, suggesting that retail traders are pricing in short-term risks and not long-term growth.

Coinbase Listing Effect Fails to Prop Anthropic Pre-IPO Futures

CoinGape reported that Coinbase expanded its pre-IPO perpetual futures market to include OpenAI and Anthropic on June 22.

A new asset listed on Coinbase tends to rise in what is popularly known as the “Coinbase listing effect,” but this did not happen for the Anthropic pre-IPO futures, which dropped from the opening price of $1,728 to $1,628 at the time of writing.

The ANTHROPIC/USDC contract on Coinbase has also recorded a surge in volatility, moving from the June 22 high of $1,769 to a low of $1,560 seen on June 23.

Binance also recorded a similar drop in its ANTHROPIC/USDT futures that touched an all-time low of $1,545 on June 23.

The Binance contract traded at $1,700 before Coinbase launched Anthropic pre-IPO futures, suggesting it has dropped by 9% since the listing occurred.

What Caused the Crash?

The Anthropic pre-IPO shares futures contract likely crashed as investors drew comparisons with what happened with the SpaceX Pre-IPO perps.

The SpaceX perps traded at $155 before SPCX’s listing on NASDAQ, which was 15% higher than the IPO price of $135. The traders who bought at $155 before the IPO were left counting losses after the shares went live.

Binance and Coinbase are also not pricing the futures contracts based on the number of shares floated at the IPO because Anthropic did not reveal this in its S-1 statement.

When Anthropic announces the number of shares that it will sell during the IPO as well as its valuation, the IPO price could end up being lower or higher than that of the pre-IPO perpetual contract.

Coinbase has already warned investors about this gap risk, saying that the IPO price could be 25% higher or lower than what the perps are trading at.

Key Levels To Watch In Anthropic Pre-IPO Futures

The Anthropic pre-IPO futures market opened on June 2 after Anthropic confirmed it had filed an S-1 registration statement with the SEC. The contract reached an all-time high of $1,946 one day after this launch.

The contract has established support at $1,545 and moved above the obstacle at the 78.6% Fib level of $1,631. Making three straight closes above this Fib level could pave the way for a move to $1,698.

The RSI reading of 44 suggests that bears are still influencing the price of this perpetual contract. However, this RSI is recovering from the oversold level of 19, suggesting that sellers might be losing control to buyers.

The ADX line that has been rising since the price moved from $1,545 to 1,670 also shows that the uptrend was strong, and a continuation of it might take the Anthropic pre-IPO futures contract to the psychological resistance of $1,700.