The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) on Friday rose +0.50%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) rose +0.70%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) rose +0.64%. June E-mini S&P futures (ESM26) rose +0.65%, and June E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQM26) rose +0.87%.
Stocks on Friday extended Thursday’s rally on hopes that the US and Iran will sign an interim peace agreement within the next several days, ending the military hostilities, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and ending the US blockade on Iran and its oil exports. Negotiations would then begin on the more intractable issues, such as sanctions against Iran, the release of $24 billion of frozen Iranian assets, and the resolution of Iranian nuclear issues. However, Iran said its leaders still need to make a final decision on the proposed interim peace deal.
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Stocks started to rally on Thursday after President Trump canceled planned military strikes against Iran, citing “discussions” with the Iranian leadership. He added that the “time and place of the signing” of a negotiated end to the war would “be announced shortly.”
WTI crude oil prices (CLN26) fell -3.23% on Friday on the hopes for a near-term US-Iran agreement and a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
In positive news for stocks, the University of Michigan’s June US Consumer Sentiment Index rose +4.1 to 48.9, which was stronger than expectations for a rise to 46.0. Also, the University of Michigan’s June 1-year inflation expectations rate eased to +4.6% from +4.8% in May, and was weaker than expectations of +4.9%. The June 5-10 year inflation expectations rate eased to +3.4% from +3.9% in May, weaker than expectations of +3.8%.
The markets are discounting a 4% chance of a +25 bp rate hike at the next FOMC meeting on June 16-17.
Overseas stock markets closed higher. The Euro Stoxx 50 rose +2.16%. China’s Shanghai Composite closed up +1.12%. Japan’s Nikkei-225 Stock Average closed up +2.81%.
Interest Rates
September 10-year T-notes (ZNU6) fell -5 ticks, and the 10-year T-note yield rose +2.2 bp to 4.483%. T-notes saw weakness as the 10-year inflation expectations rate rose +1.8 bp to 2.323%, despite the drop in oil prices. The T-note market remains worried about inflation pressures, which are likely to remain sticky even after the Strait of Hormuz reopens. The T-note market had some carry-over weakness from Thursday, when demand was lackluster for the Treasury’s 30-year bond auction.
European government bond yields traded lower. The 10-year German bund yield fell -3.6 bp to 2.995%. The 10-year UK gilt yield fell -6.9 bp to 4.836%.
On Thursday, the ECB, as expected, raised the deposit facility rate by +25 bp to 2.25% from 2.00% and said, “The outlook remains uncertain, with upside risks for inflation and downside risks for economic growth.” Swaps are discounting a 37% chance of a +25 bp ECB rate hike at its next policy meeting on July 23.
US Stock Movers
Space Exploration Technologies Corp (SPCX), doing business as SpaceX, started trading Friday morning and closed the day at $161 per share, up +19% from Thursday’s IPO of $135. The IPO was more than four times oversubscribed, indicating strong demand for the stock. SpaceX’s favorable showing on Friday was positive for investor sentiment and could help the upcoming IPOs of AI companies Anthropic and OpenAI.
Space-linked stocks traded lower despite the favorable SpaceX debut, with EchoStar (SATS) and Rocket Lab (RKLB) both closing down about -10%.
Chip stocks recovered from early losses and closed mostly higher. The iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) rose +1.59% on Friday, adding to Thursday’s sharp rally of +8.39%. The chip rally was sparked by signs that AI spending is continuing after Oracle on Thursday reported quarterly capital expenditures that were higher than expected, driven by increased data center spending. Chip leaders on Friday included a rally of +6.51% in Intel (INTC) and +5.55% in KLA-Tencor Corp (KLAC). AMD (AMD)and Qualcomm (QCOM) both closed up more than +4%.
Adobe (ADBE) fell more than -6% after CFO Dan Durn said he would leave the company on June 15, following news earlier this year that Adobe’s CEO would resign. The Adobe news put continued downward pressure on software stocks, which were undercut on Thursday by negative earnings news from Oracle (ORCL). Autodesk (ADSK) fell more than -3%, and Palantir Technologies (PLTR) fell more than -2%.
Airline stocks saw continued support after oil prices on Friday extended Thursday’s losses. Southwest Airlines (LUV), United Airlines (UAL), and American Airlines (AAL) all rallied by more than +2%.
Astera Labs (ALAB), CoreWeave (CRWV), Nebius Group (NBIS), Rocket Lab (RKLB), and Teradyn (TER) saw support on Friday after Nasdaq announced on Thursday that those stocks will join the Nasdaq 100 Index, effective at the market open on June 22. Stocks leaving the Nasdaq 100 include Charter Communications (CHTR), Cognizant Technology Solutions (CTSH), Insmed (INSM), Verisk Analytics (VRSK), and Zscaler (ZS).
Travelers (TRV) rose +0.18% despite news that Barclays cut its rating on the stock to underweight from equal-weight, citing a downbeat outlook for profits in the property and casualty sector.
Earnings Reports(6/15/2026)
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On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Barchart.com
