The baby bust has been a global phenomenon, although it is most pronounced in the developed world. Everyone is trying to understand why fewer women are having children. Indeed, there is no single answer to the declining fertility rate, but Americans add a collapsing purchasing power to the list of reasons why more men and women are abstaining from parenthood.
Baby Bust and the Dollar
In the United States, the fertility rate is 1.6, below the replacement level of 2.1. But while this has captured more attention as of late, the birth rate per woman has been on a downward trajectory since the 1960s, according to World Bank data. This is also leading to a plethora of future societal changes and economic risks, whether the death of the cousin or an unfunded entitlement system.
A growing chorus of commentators says that the economic angle does not make much sense. It is easier than ever before to raise children in the age of abundance, but individuals are refraining because they do not want to make sacrifices. Others purport that the cost of living is too high to have a child: Home prices are exorbitant, daycare is outrageous, and health care is astronomical.
Sympathy can be extended to both sides of the argument. That said, one element is commonly omitted from the discussion: the collapse of Americans’ purchasing power.
Since the turn of the century, consumers’ purchasing power has eroded by 30% to 40%. Over the past 100 years, when the Federal Reserve was founded in response to the banking panic several years earlier, the dollar’s value has been eviscerated. Essentially, a buck buys a nickel’s worth. It is no surprise that the panoply of the nation’s ailments coincides with the US abandonment of the gold standard and its reliance entirely on fiat currency.
Indeed, everything is outrageously expensive when measured in dollars. The more Washington spends, the more the Federal Reserve prints, and the more the greenback disintegrates. Measured in gold? The necessities are within reach. Unless your household owns assets – stocks, gold, and Treasury bills – it can be hard to scratch, scrimp, and save to get ahead.
Families need a strong currency, not just for the current generation but for the future.
Blame the Phones
Is the iPhone an effective form of birth control?
In the past decade, the smartphone has been a convenient scapegoat for many of our problems. But the pearl-clutching might be justified in this case, at least according to new research published in the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER).
Researchers examined the link between the smartphone’s 2007 release and the sharp decline in fertility that began that year. They wrote:
“The U.S. general fertility rate has fallen by 22% since 2007, a sustained decline not readily explained by economic conditions, contraceptive use, housing or childcare costs, or other commonly cited factors. We assess the potential role of a different shock: the diffusion of the smartphone.
“Overall, the diffusion of the iPhone explains 33–52% of the decline in the general fertility rate among women aged 15–44. National-survey evidence on time use and sexual behavior is consistent with the iPhone reducing in-person interactions, increasing pornography use, and reducing sexual frequency.”
Young people are more enamored with the devices in their pockets than anything else.
Death of Man
As more eyes are on the data, armchair experts and professionals are drawing various conclusions about why John Doe and Jane Smith are not having babies. Governments are trying to encourage families to have children, the Christian revival has made child-rearing front and center of the religious comeback, and popular opinion suggests we made a mistake listening to the late Paul Ehrlich.
The baby bust will require further studying, but will millennials and Generation Zers heed the call to carry on their DNA, family name, and mankind?
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