Kashkari says Iran war limits Fed’s ability to provide rate guidance

By Michael S. Derby

May 3 (Reuters) – Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari said Sunday that the longer the Iran war goes on, the greater the risks of higher inflation and economic damage, all of which limit how much guidance the central bank should provide on rate policy right now.

In an appearance on CBS’s “Face the Nation” television ‌program, Kashkari said he was “very focused” on the Iran war and its impact on inflation and economic demand amid the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for ‌20% of global oil and gas supplies.

The war, which began when U.S. President Donald Trump and Israel launched airstrikes on Iran on February 28, has led to a massive surge in energy prices around the globe and worsened a bad inflation environment in ​the U.S.

Given the risks and the uncertainty around all aspects of the war, Kashkari said the Fed may even have to raise rates.

“I don’t feel comfortable signaling that a rate cut is in the cards. You know, we might be in worse scenarios, we might have to go the other direction,” he said.

Kashkari was part of an unusually large dissenting wave at the most recent Federal Open Market Committee meeting, voting against language the institution used in its monetary policy statement.

FED DISSENTERS

On Wednesday, the Fed held its interest rate target range steady at between 3.5% and 3.75% and retained language that indicated officials still collectively viewed the central bank’s next move ‌as a rate cut.

Kashkari was joined in a dissent against that guidance ⁠by the leaders of the Cleveland and Dallas regional Fed banks. One other Fed official, Governor Stephen Miran, dissented in favor of a rate cut.

The three regional Fed dissenters supported holding rates steady and in following comments, they said interest rates may need to go up or down depending on how the war affects ⁠the economy.

The Fed traditionally looks through things like energy price shocks as they usually abate, but some officials have noted the current troubles come on top of years of inflation overshooting the Fed’s target.

That means the central bank may have to raise rates to contain inflation. At the same time, however, big increases in energy also depress demand by impairing consumers’ ability to spend. That in turn could cause the Fed to hold steady or even cut rates ​in ​a bid to protect the job market.

In a television appearance on Saturday, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee called the ​most recent U.S. inflation data “bad news.” Against the Fed’s 2% target, headline inflation as ‌measured by the personal consumption expenditures price index was up by 3.5% year-over-year as of March.

Adding to uncertainty around the monetary policy outlook is a changing of the guard at the top of the Fed, with Kevin Warsh on track to succeed current Chair Jerome Powell when his leadership term ends later this month. Warsh nodded toward easier rate policy as he sought the chair position, but events and the disposition of current Fed officials may thwart that agenda.

OIL PRICE OUTLOOK

The U.S. and Israel suspended their bombing campaign against Iran four weeks ago, but appear no closer to a deal to end the war that has raised worries about the possibility of a wider global economic downturn.

Kashkari was not sanguine about a swift return to normal, saying even a best-case scenario from the war pointed to extended disruptions.

“I talked to the ‌CEO of a global company headquartered in Minnesota that has supply chains all around the world just last week, ​and they have estimated that even if the strait reopened today, it probably takes six months for their supply chains to ​return to something like normal,” Kashkari said.

In contrast, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent sounded confident that ​energy prices would fall once the war is resolved.

In an appearance on Fox News’ “Sunday Morning Futures,” Bessent said the war, as well as other developments in oil production ‌dynamics, “gives me a lot of optimism that oil prices on the other side ​of this conflict are going to be much lower ​than they were going in, or at the beginning of the year, or at any point in 2020-2025.”

Bessent said futures markets are eyeing lower energy prices later this year and that Iran was not facing much success trying to toll ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, largely due to the U.S. naval blockade of Iran.

Bessent said the U.S. is a “big winner” in the energy ​crisis because of its ability to export oil, which is only limited ‌by its ability to load fuel onto ships and send it abroad.

Barclays analysts said in a note on Friday that the energy price surge had so far been relatively contained, ​but that may soon give way. Further disruptions to the flow of energy would drive inventories of key fuels to critically low levels, they said, adding “when such tipping points ​are reached, prices could jump further.”

(Reporting by Michael S. Derby; editing by Scott Malone and Nia Williams)