85 million international students by 2030, QS data predicts

Despite headwinds that have affected the four biggest study destinations over the past year, “push factors” such as lack of capacity in higher education in major sending markets will mean that the future of international education will continue to be relatively stable – and tens of millions of students will continue to study abroad in the future.

That was the message from QS’s Andrew Plant and Selma Toohey at the organisation’s Reimagine conference in London. Using data from QS’s Global Stream Flows project, which tracks current market data and predicts future trends, they showed the relative resilience of the market over time.

“Everyone should know they’re in a safe sector – that things will continue to be on the up, if you believe [the data],” said Toohey, senior vice president, university services at QS, outlining that there will be some 85 million international students by 2030.

“It doesn’t always feel like it, does it?” added Plant, QS director, UK and Ireland. “It feels like we’re always dealing with a crisis, but actually we’re in a pretty good industry.”

However, he acknowledged that there is “potentially more volatility” in destinations such as the US, Argentina and Russia at the moment as factors such as geopolitical or financial instability come home to roost.

Similarly, in the UK, Brexit and the pandemic have hampered growth in recent years.

I want you to imagine international education as a chess court. Every move, every political shift, they change the shape of the gameAndrew Plant, QS

“I want you to imagine international education as a chess court. Every move, every political shift, they change the shape of the game,” said Plant. “The question we need to be asking ourselves is, are we predicting those moves or are we just reacting to the moves we weren’t expecting?”

Looking at broader market trends, Toohey pointed out that Nigeria – a major sending country – has around 2 million students looking for a university place, but only a maximum capacity to offer 600,000 places across its roughly 200 universities.

“They often do regional flows so you’ll see Nigerians go into places like Ghana, but then they have their own capacity problems, or they go out to the big four or more and more the longer 14,” she said, referring to the larger group of major study destinations over and above the biggest markets in the US, the UK, Canada and Australia.

There is a similar situation in India, which Toohey said would have to open 14 new universities a week to keep up with its target enrolment ratio – driving the influx of TNE interest in the country as well as making India one of the biggest sending countries in the world.

“The population is so large and more and more Indians have access or want to have access to higher education,” she explained.