As we look toward the 2025 holiday season, the retail landscape presents a mixed but evolving picture. While economic uncertainty continues to influence consumer mindsets, improving financial situations in some markets is signalling a brighter outlook. This is causing shoppers to become more strategic with their purchases, balancing budget-conscious behaviours with a desire for meaningful celebrations and quality gifts. This sets the stage for a dynamic period of seasonal shopping across key global markets.
Read on to explore our analysis of the upcoming holiday shopping consumer behaviour in the US, UK, and Germany. We will unpack the key Christmas consumer trends for 2025 and provide insights into what retailers can expect.
Outlook for Holiday Shopping in 2025 Across UK, US and Germany
The outlook for holiday shopping in 2025 reflects a blend of cautious optimism and persistent financial pragmatism across the UK, US, and Germany. While financially secure and younger groups in each country are showing more positivity and a willingness to spend, the dominant sentiment this year is shaped by value-seeking and deal-driven shopping behaviours.
United Kingdom: Optimism for Christmas 2025 is on the rise, especially among younger and higher-income households. Almost half expect a more enjoyable Christmas than in 2024. However, concerns about the cost of living and tax rises persist, have caused confidence to dip slightly in late 2025 compared to earlier in the year. Still, overall financial confidence remains higher than in 2024.
United States: North American consumers’ confidence is steady but cautious. Nearly all adults intend to shop this holiday season, but 84% will use at least one money-saving tactic. Most shoppers are more deliberate than before, whereby they compare prices, participate in sales, and set clear budgets to maximise value.
Germany: The majority of German consumers are prioritising affordability. In 2024, three in five consumers opted for cheaper gifts, and Mintel analysts predict this trend to grow in 2025. Among those feeling financially strained, two-fifths plan to cut back on gift spending this year. This contrasts sharply with adults aged 16-34, where over three in ten intend to spend more on Christmas gifts than last year.
Financial Pressures Continue to Shape Gifting Trends
As Christmas 2025 nears, consumers are more price-conscious than ever, yet they are still eager to embrace the joy of the gifting season. Let’s explore how shoppers are balancing tight budgets with their desire to give, and what this means for retailers’ holiday retail marketing strategies.
Black Friday’s continuous role as a holiday sales driver
Consumers increasingly use Black Friday deals as a crucial tool for Christmas gift shopping, and use the event to plan, save and maximise budgets.
In the UK, over two-thirds of Black Friday buyers plan to purchase their 2025 Christmas gifts during these promotions. Black Friday has distorted the traditional December peak as we used to know it, with many shoppers starting their Christmas shopping in November. In 2024, over 6 in 10 Black Friday buyers pre-planned their purchases, which Mintel analysts predict to rise this year, highlighting a move from impulse buys to strategic, budget-driven shopping.
US shoppers mirror this pattern. Black Friday and Cyber Monday are now deeply embedded in North American holiday shopping culture, with many consumers using these events to buy the bulk of their Christmas gifts. Over three-fifths of US shoppers agree that Black Friday and Cyber Monday deals are too good not to miss. For retailers, this underscores the need for value-led messaging to capture and retain holiday shoppers.
In Germany, Black Friday enables consumers to shop strategically ahead of Christmas. Almost half of Christmas shoppers in 2024 used Black Friday promotions for gift buying, and over half of Black Friday buyers made lists of items to look for. This demonstrates how promotional periods help consumers stretch their budgets and plan purchases in advance.
Alternative gifting behaviour: Gift reduction and mindful gifting
Shoppers are increasingly participating in gift reduction, either by focusing on buying fewer, higher-quality gifts or by engaging in schemes like Secret Santa. This trend is driven not only by financial pressures but also by growing sustainability concerns and a desire for more meaningful gifting in a society defined by over-consumption.
In the UK: A third of UK gift buyers took part in Secret Santa in 2024, and participation rises among younger consumers living with family. Retailers can cater to this by creating dedicated in-store and online sections for group gifting with clear price brackets and suggestions for different recipients.
In the US: 77% of US holiday shoppers try to find unique, meaningful gifts, while over three-fifths prioritise spending on big-ticket items such as electronics or jewellery. Retailers can cater to this by highlighting high-quality, durable products that feel special. To help shoppers manage the cost of these premium items, offering flexible payment options like “buy now, pay later” can make these purchases more accessible.
In Germany: Over half of German Christmas shoppers made pre-agreements with loved ones to skip gifts altogether. Instead, they’re focusing on meaningful, sustainable options. More on this in the next section!
Key Christmas Consumer Trends for 2025
Beyond budget consciousness, several distinct 2025 holiday shopping trends are emerging. Retailers who understand these shifts will be better positioned for a successful season.
Sustainability takes centre stage
Eco-conscious gifting is now a core consideration for many shoppers, especially younger demographics.
In Germany, 36% of Christmas shoppers prioritise environmentally friendly gifts, rising to 48% for ages 25–34, and peaking at 59% among families with children under five. To capitalise on this momentum, retailers are responding with greener product ranges, eco-friendly packaging, and campaigns such as “Green Friday,” which encourage mindful and sustainable purchasing.
In the UK, circular, sustainable Christmas shopping is also gaining momentum, with 25% of Christmas shoppers purchasing a second-hand item as a gift in 2024. This presents an opportunity for retailers to highlight the longevity and quality of their products. By emphasising that quality gifts can be resold at a later date, retailers can appeal to environmentally conscious shoppers, particularly younger and higher-income consumers, who are willing to spend more on sustainable choices
Over half of winter shoppers in the US prefer to shop with retailers that offer environmentally friendly options. Transparency is crucial for US shoppers, as many believe brands should be required to meet sustainability benchmarks. Retailers can provide simple, visible labels to help consumers make informed choices.
Social and experiential elements in-store can encourage spending
Brick-and-mortar retail is playing a renewed role in spreading the Christmas cheer. Social and experiential in-store elements can enhance festive spirit, increase dwell time, and encourage impulse spending.
Experiential retailing, like themed events and interactive displays, creates memorable connections that inspire discovery and impulse buys. Retailers should focus on creating immersive store layouts and hosting engaging events to boost both footfall and customer loyalty.
Evolving Retail Channels
How people shop is just as important as what they buy. The seasonal retail trends for 2025 point to a blended, multi-channel approach where online and physical stores both play crucial roles.
Online continues to lead holiday retail sales
Online channels remain central to holiday shopping, offering unmatched convenience, price comparisons, and a broad selection.
US: Consumers spent a record $241.4 billion online in November and December 2024.
UK: Online sales grew 10.2% year-on-year in December 2024.
Germany: Nearly four-fifths of consumers bought gifts online in 2024.
Online channels are not only maintaining but expanding their lead in holiday retail sales. The convenience, competitive pricing, and vast selection offered by online retailers are powerful draws for budget-conscious and time-pressed holiday shoppers. To capitalise on this, retailers must optimise the online experience with seamless navigation, mobile-first design, and flexible fulfillment options.
The emergence of AI in the gift shopping experience
Technology is becoming a larger part of the shopping journey. Digital tools, particularly AI-driven assistance and personalisation, are reshaping where and how consumers shop.
Nearly half of US shoppers are willing to use AI shopping assistants, and over three-fifths of Gen Z and Millennials are especially open to this technology during holiday periods.
Similarly, in the UK, a quarter of consumers under 35 plan to use AI tools for gift inspiration for Christmas.
Even in Germany, one-fifth of shoppers used an AI-powered assistant for Christmas gift recommendations, which rose to almost half of shoppers with children under 5 years old.
It’s clear to see that consumers are getting more comfortable with using AI for inspiration and information retrieval. To maximise this piquing interest, retailers could use AI and shopper data to provide personalised product suggestions and targeted offers, thereby enhancing product discovery and creating a more responsive shopping experience.
Omnichannel is the expected retail baseline
Omnichannel shopping is no longer just a trend; it’s an expectation. For example, two-fifths of US consumers say that they increasingly select retailers based on the availability of both physical and digital channels. Friction in the customer journey erodes loyalty, while seamless experiences like click-and-collect and simple returns are highly valued. Offering an integrated, omnichannel experience is key for retailers aiming to capture holiday demand in 2025.
Navigate the Season Confidently with Mintel
The holiday retail trends for 2025 are here and shoppers are bringing their A-game! They’re strategic, value-driven, are ready to grab those Black Friday deals, and demand seamless omnichannel experiences.
Success this year depends on understanding what makes today’s shoppers tick and tailoring your holiday retail marketing to meet them (and spread a little extra cheer!).
At Mintel, we provide in-depth analysis of consumer behaviour and emerging trends across multiple industries worldwide. Our experts help businesses understand changes in demand, respond to shifting consumer preferences, and identify growth opportunities.
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