But not one of the 25 dramas and comedies that movie companies released in North American theaters over the past three months has become a hit, certainly not in the way that Hollywood has historically kept score. Some have played to near-empty auditoriums, including “After the Hunt,” staring Julia Roberts; “Christy,” with Sydney Sweeney; and “Die My Love,” featuring Jennifer Lawrence and Robert Pattinson.
“To succeed in theaters today, dramas and comedies must have event status — something truly elevated and special,” said Kevin Goetz, an author of the new book “How to Score in Hollywood,” which looks at film bankability. “It’s not a phase,” he added. “It’s an evolution you can’t reverse.”
The dearth has added to what has already been a troubled year for Hollywood. The summer season — filled with fantasies and science-fiction sequels — was the least attended since 1981, after adjusting for inflation and excluding the COVID-19 pandemic years.
Here is what you need to know. What constitutes a hit?While success at the box office is always correlated to how much it costs to make a film, Hollywood has historically used $50 million in ticket sales (over an entire run) as a benchmark for a “widely seen” drama or comedy. By that measure, “After the Hunt,” with Roberts playing a college professor combating cancel culture, is a catastrophe. It cost an estimated $70 million to make and collected $3.3 million in the United States and Canada after playing for a month.
“Kiss of the Spider Woman,” starring Jennifer Lopez and Diego Luna, cost roughly $30 million and managed only $1.6 million in ticket sales over a month.
What movies are succeeding?Franchise films are chugging along. “Predator: Badlands,” the ninth installment in a 38-year-old series, collected $40 million last weekend, about 30% better than analysts had predicted. (It cost $105 million to make.) Horror flicks like “Weapons” and anime offerings like “Infinity Castle” have also attracted sizable audiences.
Paul Thomas Anderson’s “One Battle After Another,” an action movie with elements of comedy, has taken in $70 million after seven weeks of release.
That said, the box office is hurting as a whole. Theaters in the United States and Canada collected $445 million across all titles in October, the lowest total on record, after adjusting for inflation and excluding 2020, when the pandemic darkened screens.
For context, October ticket sales in 2019 totaled an adjusted $1 billion, according to Comscore.
Haven’t dramas and comedies been struggling for a while?Yes. What’s different now is the sheer volume of misfires — and the number of major stars involved. Margot Robbie, Colin Farrell, Dwayne Johnson, Roberts, Channing Tatum, Jennifer Lopez, Austin Butler, Keanu Reeves, Lawrence, Pattinson, Emma Stone, Sweeney and Russell Crowe have all failed to fill seats (to varying degrees) over the past three months.
“It has seriously begun to look like the bottom is falling out,” Owen Gleiberman, chief film critic for Variety, the entertainment trade news outlet, wrote last week.
What decimated these genres?During the pandemic, Hollywood largely ended the long-held practice of giving theaters an exclusive window of about 90 days to show new movies. Instead, movies started to become available for digital rental or purchase after as little as 17 days.
This diminished the incentive to see movies in theaters — especially dramas and comedies, which play just fine on living room TVs.
Frustrated theater owners have lately been trying to persuade studios to backtrack, perhaps changing the 17-day policy to something closer to 45 days. The effort has gone nowhere, although talks are continuing.
How have movie companies responded?There’s a lot of finger-pointing:
It’s the audience’s fault. Americans love to complain about a deluge of superhero sequels and big-budget fantasies. And what do they do when a bunch of dramas arrive? They ignore them.
It’s the news media’s fault for reporting on opening-weekend box office grosses; films are declared dead before they have a chance to find their footing.
Theaters are at fault for raising prices and bombarding audiences with ads and trailers before films start.
Quality matters, right?
It sure doesn’t appear that way.
Critics raved about “Die My Love,” about a woman slipping into madness. It debuted in eighth place last weekend, with about $2.8 million in domestic ticket sales. Mubi, a streaming service and film distributor, paid $24 million for the rights.
“Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere” received mostly positive reviews yet stalled at the domestic box office with about $21 million in ticket sales. It cost $55 million to make.
Reeves headlined the well-reviewed comedy “Good Fortune,” which cost an estimated $30 million. It has collected about $16.3 million after nearly a month in release.
The list goes on (“Bugonia”) and on (“The Smashing Machine”).
Could some of these duds become hits on streaming?Yes, especially if they receive attention from the coming Golden Globes and Academy Awards.
This is why some studios contend that ticket sales (at least for certain kinds of films) are no longer an informative measuring stick for success or failure (eventual profit or loss). The same companies refuse to disclose digital revenue, however.
If ticket sales for dramas are so bad, why do studios keep trying?The worry is that they won’t. Some of these films come from indie distributors that operate on a knife’s edge in the best of times.
But movies that completely bypass theaters are not eligible for the best picture prize at the Academy Awards. Studios very much want to remain eligible.
And hope never dies in the casino that is Hollywood. Sooner or later, a drama will hit at the box office, renewing optimism. Keep an eye on Chloe Zhao’s heart-rending “Hamnet,” which begins its run in theaters on Nov. 26, and “Marty Supreme,” a Christmas drama starring Timothée Chalamet as a 1950s table tennis player.
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