March NY world sugar #11 (SBH26) today is down -0.44 (-2.80%), and December London ICE white sugar #5 (SWZ25) is down -13.10 (-2.93%).
Sugar prices are selling off today, with NY Sugar matching last month’s 4.5-year nearest-futures low and London sugar posting a new 4.25-year low. The outlook for robust global sugar supplies is weighing on prices. Last Monday, BMI Group projected a global 2025/26 sugar surplus of 10.5 MMT, and last Tuesday, Covrig Analytics projected a global 2025/25 sugar surplus of 4.1 MMT.
Sugar prices have been under pressure over the past seven months due to signs of higher sugar output in Brazil. Unica reported last Thursday that Brazil’s Center-South sugar output in the second half of September rose by +10.8% y/y to 3.137 MT. Also, the percentage of sugarcane crushed for sugar by Brazil’s sugar mills in the second half of September increased to 51.17% from 47.73% the same time last year. In addition, cumulative 2025-26 Center-South sugar output through September rose +0.8% y/y to 33.524 MMT.
The outlook for higher sugar exports from India is negative for sugar prices, as abundant monsoon rains may produce a bumper sugar crop. On September 30, India’s Meteorological Department reported that the cumulative monsoon rainfall in India as of September 30 was 937.2 mm, 8% above normal, marking the strongest monsoon in five years. On June 2, India’s National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories projected that India’s 2025/26 sugar production would climb +19% y/y to 34.9 MMT, citing larger planted cane acreage. That would follow a -17.5% y/y decline in India’s sugar production in 2024/25 to a 5-year low of 26.2 MMT, according to the Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA).
Another bearish factor for sugar was the recent assertion from sugar trader Sucden that India may divert 4 MMT of sugar to make ethanol in 2025/26, which is not enough to ease the country’s sugar surplus and may prompt India’s sugar mills to export as much as 4 MMT of sugar, above earlier expectations of 2 MMT. India is the world’s second-largest producer of sugar.
The outlook for higher sugar production in Thailand is bearish for prices after the Thai Sugar Miller Corp on October 1 projected that Thailand’s 2025/26 sugar crop will increase by +5% y/y to 10.5 MMT. On May 2, Thailand’s Office of the Cane and Sugar Board reported that Thailand’s 2024/25 sugar production rose +14% y/y to 10.00 MMT. Thailand is the world’s third-largest sugar producer and the second-largest exporter of sugar.