Is Packaging Corporation Stock Underperforming the Dow?

With a market cap of $19 billion, Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) is the third-largest producer of containerboard and a leading producer of uncoated freesheet paper in North America. The company operates through two main segments: Packaging and Paper, offering a wide range of corrugated packaging products, commodity and specialty papers, and communication papers.

Companies valued at more than $10 billion are generally considered “large-cap” stocks, and Packaging Corporation fits this criterion perfectly. With a strong manufacturing and sales network, PCA serves diverse industries including food, beverages, retail, and industrial markets across the United States.

Shares of the Lake Forest, Illinois-based company have declined 15.8% from its 52-week high of $250.82. Over the past three months, its shares have increased 13.5%, outperforming the broader Dow Jones Industrials Average’s ($DOWI) 9.8% return during the same period.

Longer term, PKG stock is down 6.2% on a YTD basis, lagging behind DOWI’s 8.9% rise. Moreover, shares of the company have decreased over 2% over the past 52 weeks, compared to DOWI’s 10.2% gain over the same time frame.

Yet, the stock has been trading mostly above its 50-day moving average since mid-May.

Shares of PKG rose marginally following its Q2 2025 results on Jul. 23 as adjusted EPS of $2.48 topped both guidance and the consensus estimate, reflecting a 13% year-over-year increase. Revenue grew 4.6% to $2.2 billion, ahead of the estimate, driven by stronger pricing and mix across both Packaging and Paper segments, which also lifted gross margin to 22.2%. Investors were further encouraged by the company’s Q3 EPS guidance of $2.80.

In contrast, rival International Paper Company (IP) has lagged behind PKG stock. IP stock has dropped 13.7% YTD and 7.1% over the past 52 weeks.

Despite the stock’s underperformance relative to the Dow over the past year, analysts remain moderately optimistic about its prospects. PKG stock has a consensus rating of “Moderate Buy” from 10 analysts in coverage, and the mean price target of $223.67 is a premium of 5.9% to current levels.

On the date of publication, Sohini Mondal did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Barchart.com