The Financial Times today has an important tidbit that provides yet more confirmation of why no one, particularly Russia, should try to enter into a deal with Trump. Even by the staggering standards of US/Collective West duplicity, Trump stands apart.
As the pink paper reports, the Administration still has not signed the minerals pact with Ukraine, even though that was a commitment agreed in the US-Ukraine talks in Riyadh on March 11. Recall Zelensky was in Riyadh and it could have easily been executed then. Some commenters volunteered it was odd that it wasn’t.
One of the real no-nos of negotiating is what is called “retrading a deal” as in trying to reopen settled terms. It is proof of bad faith. The only way to make it somewhat acceptable is to do all of 1. Grovel like crazy; 2. Explain why Shit Happened so that you need a change in the provisions; 3. Offer a concession in return for what amounts to a waiver in the original deal.
On top of that…in the “You can’t make this up” category, Trump’s team is retrading its own deal! Recall Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant first arrived in Kiev to muscle Zelensky into signing an agreement right there on the spot, an already brazen move, when the proposal was miles apart from what Zelensky had offered, Ukraine resources in return for security guarantees. Trump and Bessant were taking the minerals without giving anything in return. The terms were supposedly somewhat softened, but the scheme remained essentially, “The US takes and Ukraine gets squat” (well save perhaps Zelensky not being pressured to leave, though that was never made explicit. And most would contend that Zelensky remaining in his post is another negative for Ukraine).
So now Team Trump is worsening its own proposal…. for sport?
Now one can argue that Trump is merely jerking around Zelensky because he can. But even that as a behavior in geopolitics, as opposed to getting revenge on an ex-business partners or spouse, shows extreme emotional immaturity taking precedence over sensible and productive arrangements. Remember, this isn’t just a bad look. It’s a waste of time only for the sake of giving Trump some jollies. And is has the considerable downside of showing Russia yet more layers of Trump’s out-of-control grandiosity.
As for the substance, it’s even worse than general take above suggests, since if Trump were to get what he wants, it would at least complicate and potentially poison any settlement with Russia. We warned of that from the get-go when the minerals agreement idea became somewhat serious. Many (most?) of the valuable mineral deposits like in the areas of Ukraine that Russia claims and no way, no how is going to ceded. Putin swatted back initial Trump noises about the US position by saying of course the US could help develop them…as Russia has sometimes allowed oil majors to do in Russia.
Despite Ukraine officials saying they are willing to sign the deal, Zelensky has already rejected letting the US own or otherwise control its nuclear power plants. And surely Trump knows the biggest is the Zaporzhizhia facility, now in Russia hands and in territory Russia has annexed.
From the Russian perspective, this is not an asset that Ukraine could trade to the US even if it wanted to. But even the subhead of the Financial Times account says otherwise: “Trump administration wants to include nuclear plant under Russian control in broader economic agreement.:
From the Financial Times:
Washington wants Kyiv to agree to detailed provisions about who owns and controls a joint investment fund, and to a broader scope, potentially covering US ownership of other economic assets such as Ukraine’s nuclear power plants, two Ukrainian officials said.
This would amount to a reopening of the yet unsigned minerals deal hatched days before presidents Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelenskyy fell out in public at the White House.
Trump and Zelenskyy on a call this week “discussed Ukraine’s electrical supply and nuclear power plants”, according to an account of the call from secretary of state Marco Rubio and national security adviser Mike Waltz.
“[President Trump] said that the United States could be very helpful in running those plants with its electricity and utility expertise,” the summary added, with US ownership offering “the best protection” for Ukrainian energy infrastructure.
Zelenskyy told the FT during an online briefing with reporters on Wednesday that he had discussed with Trump just one nuclear facility: the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, Europe’s largest….
However, the deal — which Kyiv regarded as satisfactory — remains unsigned as both sides navigate complex negotiations involving broader economic and security matters, said Ukrainian and US officials.“We are ready to sign it,” said a senior Ukrainian official close to Zelenskyy. “It will be strange to ignore it.”
Two senior Ukrainian officials involved in negotiations with the US over Ukraine’s mineral resources said the Trump administration had not yet presented Kyiv with new terms.
“But I realise that . . . they’re working on a bigger agreement,” said one of the officials, who, like the others, spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the discussions.
Remember nothing has been concluded yet, so this could be more reflexive Trump behavior of trying to create more options whether they have value or not.
But unless Trump is trying to pre-position another excuse for the Ukraine negotiations failing, this looks like yet another instance of Trump’s mode of operation: “All tactics and no strategy is the noise before the defeat.”
