Mortgage Rates Simmer, But Borrowers Might Get a Cooler Autumn

Mortgage rates didn’t do much this week, continuing to hover around 7%.

The average rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage fell just one basis point to 6.94% for the week ending June 12, according to rates provided to NerdWallet by Zillow. A basis point is one one-hundredth of a percentage point.

This is unsurprising — rates don’t have much reason to fluctuate right now. The next Federal Reserve meeting ends on June 18, and the consensus among investors is that there’s very little chance central bankers will vote to change the federal funds rate. With that rate remaining steady, mortgage rates are likely to also stay about the same.

While we expect a simmering summer, though, cooler rates in autumn remain a possibility.

A milder-than-expected Consumer Price Index report showed inflation did not accelerate quite as quickly as investors predicted. The report released on June 11 revealed that inflation rose 0.1% last month. Economists had projected that the increase would be 0.2%, the same as in April.

Year-over-year inflation rates have also fallen short of expectations. Inflation rose 2.4% over the past 12 months, compared to a projected 2.5%.

This is good news for mortgage borrowers, who are at the mercy of the Federal Reserve’s influence over interest rates. If the Fed continues to see declining inflation numbers throughout the summer, a rate cut might be back on the table — eventually.

“The Federal Reserve will take some solace from the improving consumer inflation trends, but not enough, in our view, to pull the trigger on another rate cut until September at the earliest,” wrote Scott Anderson, PhD., chief U.S. economist and managing director at BMO Capital Markets.

Anderson pointed to tariffs as a lingering threat to U.S. inflation, noting that softening housing inflation numbers suggest consumers are “highly price sensitive and consumer demand remains skittish.”

If further data this summer indicates cooling inflation, mounting confidence in a September rate cut could mean potential home buyers might get a break in mortgage rates heading into the fall.

Last week, the number of mortgage applications rose to their highest point in more than a month, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). On a seasonally adjusted basis, purchase applications were up 10% week-over-week; on an unadjusted basis, applications rose 20% week-over-week, as well as 20% year-over-year.

Conventional borrowers who signed mortgage contracts last week had an average interest rate of 6.93%. While this rate is scarcely better than what borrowers have seen over the past few weeks, a stable rate environment combined with a growing supply of available homes could be encouraging potential buyers.

“Despite ongoing uncertainty surrounding the economy, homebuyers seem to be taking advantage of loosening housing inventory in certain markets,” said Joel Kan, vice president and deputy chief economist at the MBA, in a press release.